Shadow diver posted an article from the NBER. NBER is the
National Bureau of Economic Research
The NBER is the nation’s leading nonprofit economic research organization. Sixteen of the 31 American Nobel Prize winners in Economics and six of the past Chairmen of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers have been researchers at the NBER. The more than 1,000 professors of economics and business now teaching at universities around the country who are NBER researchers are the leading scholars in their fields. These Bureau associates concentrate on four types of empirical research: developing new statistical measurements, estimating quantitative models of economic behavior, assessing the effects of public policies on the U.S. economy, and projecting the effects of alternative policy proposals.
Seems like they are pretty qualified to be used as a source of information.
I did not object to your claim there is no recession. I objected to your stating the common misconception that it takes 2 straight quarters of negative economic growth to qualify as a recession.
As I understand it, the NBER is the body that is charged with officially dating the beginning and end of economic cycles of expansion and contraction. If you believe the folks at NBER are unworthy of quoting as a reliable source, I request that you suggest another source.
It’s hard for me to calm down when people state what is uncharacteristically untrue about the economy. The NBER does not “declare” a recession as much as someone can cut a paste a false quote about Barak and say it’s true. The Internet is full of bad information as is the cut and paste from BJ on the NBER. For the record, the The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the field of labor economics and statistics. The NBER is a private organization who can make the data say what ever they want. They might be a source for data but the government says we are in a recession not the NBER.
The current description of a recession is 2 negative quarters of growth. We have had none as of now. You can assign any definition you want but in this case, you would be wrong.
Any man who reads too much and uses his own brain too little falls into lazy habits of thinking.
Albert Einstein
From my report from George Shipp, Financial Officer:
Second quarter GDP received its final revision and the downward revision to 2.8% from 3.3% was surprising.
Driving the revision was a drop in consumer spending to 1.2% from the previously estimated 1.7% - this appears to be a pretty weak number considering it reflected a time when
rebate checks were being delivered.
Merrill Lynch estimates the fiscal stimulus package added 3% to headline GDP, so without the rebate check GDP would have been negative for two of the last three quarters.
Also revised lower were capital spending, exports and corporate profits
* The 1.1% GDP deflator remains suspect to those of us who witnessed soaring gasoline and other prices during the second quarter. As you know, the count of “real” GDP is
boosted if inflation is under-estimated
SO it seems that we may have had a technical recession byy Bruce’s terms; except for the prop from the economic stimulus package.
Your confrontational and antagonistic method of posting is neither appreciated nor warranted. If you can not respond in a more mature and adult manner, then please do not reply to my posts.
As for your comments:
In one paragraph you define a recession as two straight quarters of negative GDP and then in the next say that the Bureau of Labor Statistics holds all government statistics. What do they have to do with one another? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has nothing to do with GDP. The Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analisys releases GDP data.
Seems now that they all finally admitted it Stocks have rebounded- at least for today:
The Dow looks headed to a record point gain and its biggest percentage gain since the 1987 market crash. Governments around the world race to help rebuild the financial markets. Mitsubishi UFJ closes its deal to buy a stake in Morgan Stanley.
Latest Market Update
October 13, 2008—14:55 ET
[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks regain some ground after an influential hedge fund manager, Julian Robertson, said just days ago he bought Apple (AAPL 105.51, +8.71), Microsoft (MSFT 24.05, +2.55), Baidu.com… More
MoreBy Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott
Stocks were surging today, with the Dow Jones industrials gaining more than 700 points and headed toward its biggest point gain ever as investors embraced global efforts to battle the global credit crisis.
At 3:25 p.m. ET, the Dow was up 712 points, or 8.4%, to 9,164. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 79 points, or 8.8%, to 979. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 148 points, or 8.9%, to 1,796.
Monday October 13, 7:21 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks stage rally for the ages after worst week; Dow up 936 as Washington works on rescue
NEW YORK (AP)—Wall Street stormed back after its worst week ever and staged the biggest single-day stock rally since the Great Depression on Monday, catapulting the Dow Jones industrials to a 936-point gain and finally offering relief from eight consecutive days of stock market carnage..............
.....................
The Dow gained more than 11 percent, its biggest one-day rally since 1933, and by points it shattered the previous record for a one-day gain of 499, during during the waning days of the technology boom in 2000.
yesterday I was quite heartened as the market rose and I recovered some loses- my heart was happy.
now today: Oct 15
NEW YORK - Investors agonizing over a faltering economy sent the stock market plunging all over again Wednesday after two disheartening reports convinced Wall Street that a recession, if not already here, is inevitable. The Dow Jones industrials dropped as much as 572 points, more than half their huge 936-point advance from Monday, and all the major indexes fell at least 5 percent.
The government’s report that retail sales plunged in September by 1.2 percent — almost double the 0.7 percent drop analysts expected — made it clear that consumers are reluctant to spend amid a shaky economy and a punishing stock market.
and at 3:41 pm:
updated 15 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - The country has sunk deeper into an economic rut, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday, reflecting mounting damage from the financial and credit crises.
The Fed’s new snapshot of business conditions around the nation showed economic activity weakened across all of the Fed’s 12 regional districts. Consumer spending — which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity — slumped in most Fed regions. Manufacturing also slowed in most areas.......
Vanishing jobs, shrinking paychecks, dwindling nest eggs and falling home values all are making consumers more cautious and less inclined to spend, slowing the overall economy. Retail sales, auto sales and tourism all turned weaker, the Fed said.
NEW YORK - Investors agonizing over a faltering economy sent the stock market plunging all over again Wednesday after a stream of disheartening data convinced Wall Street that a recession, if not already here, is inevitable. The market’s despair propelled the Dow Jones industrials down 733 points to their second-largest point loss ever, and the major indexes all lost at least 7 percent.
astream of disheartening data convinced Wall Street that a recession, if not already here, is inevitable.a
If the health of the economy depends on how much consumers spend (it’s about 70%!), and, if consumers decide to start saving, pay off credit card debt and start using, heaven forbid, cash for purchases, I don’t see how the economy can reboud in the near future (maybe not even the far future).
Warren Buffett pulls out the pom-poms in a New York Times editorial today urging people to follow his lead and buy American stocks. I want to know which stocks he’s buying. And, is holding cash really that bad?
Buffett says he’s been buying stocks in his own personal account, in which he previously owned nothing but government bonds. If prices stay attractive, he says, soon all of his personal holdings will be 100% U.S. equities.
“A simple rule dictates my buying,” Buffett writes. “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Of Warren Buffets doing it, others should be- what an example! Now if it was Jimmy Buffets advice= I’d be more careful.
October 17th
Barack Obama discovers a leak under his sink, so he calls Joe The Plumber to come and fix it.
Joe drives to Obama’s house, which is located in a very nice neighborhood and where it’s clear that all the residents make more than $250,000 per year.
Joe arrives and takes his tools into the house. Joe is led to the room that contains the leaky pipe under a sink. Joe assesses the problem and tells Obama, who is standing near the door, that it’s an easy repair that will take less than 10 minutes.
Obama asks Joe how much it will cost.
Joe immediately says, “$9,500.”
“$9,500?” Obama asks, stunned. “But you said it’s an easy repair!”
“Yes, but what I do is charge a lot more to my clients who make more than $250,000 per year so I can fix the plumbing of everybody who makes less than that for free,” explains Joe. “It’s always been my philosophy. As a matter of fact, I lobbied government to pass this philosophy as law, and it did pass earlier this year, so now all plumbers have to do business this way. It’s known as ‘Joe’s Fair Plumbing Act of 2008.’Surprised you haven’t heard of it, senator.”
In spite of that, Obama tells Joe there’s no way he’s paying that much for a small plumbing repair, so Joe leaves.
Obama spends the next hour flipping through the phone book Looking for another plumber, but he finds that all other plumbing
businesses listed have gone out of business. Not wanting to pay Joe’s price, Obama does nothing.
The leak under Obama’s sink goes unrepaired for the next several days.
A week later the leak is so bad that Obama has had to put a bucket under the sink. The bucket fills up quickly and has to be emptied every hour, and there’s a risk that the room will flood, so Obama calls Joe and pleads with him to return.
Joe goes back to Obama’s house, looks at the leaky pipe, and says “Let’s see - this will cost you about $21,000.”
“A few days ago you told me it would cost $9,500!” Obama quickly fires back.
Joe explains the reason for the dramatic increase. “Well, because of the ‘Joe’s Fair Plumbing Act,’ a lot of rich people are learning how to fix their own plumbing, so there are fewer of you paying for all the free plumbing I’m doing for the people who make less than $250,000. As a result, the rate I have to charge my wealthy paying customers rises every day.
“Not only that, but for some reason the demand for plumbing work from the group of people who get it for free has skyrocketed, and there’s a long waiting list of those who need repairs. This has put a lot of my fellow plumbers out of business, and they’re not being replaced - nobody is going into the plumbing business because they know they won’t make any money. I’m hurting now too - all thanks to greedy rich people like you who won’t pay their fair share.”
Obama tries to straighten out the plumber: “Of course you’re hurting, Joe! Don’t you get it? If all the rich people learn how to fix their own plumbing and you refuse to charge the poorer people for your services, you’ll be broke, and then what will you do?”
Joe immediately replies, “Run for president, in 2012, apparently.”
I guess they saw IAG having a nice retreat at a luxury resort - all first class. I guess they saw all the money being added to the wall street bailout… why not cash in when you can…
but of course its all those making way way under $200,000 that pays for the rich.
just look at my tax money being spent on first class air fare.
and they go before the Government commitees to face questions and lie, lie, lie.
Im tired of the moaning of those who make over $150,000 per year. Im tired of all the haters out there who cant move on and give it a chance.
Does anybody out there really think our economy and the financial guidence in the past few years and what we are facing today cant be improved?
I certainly dont think anything worse financially can happen than the course we are all on now.
